TY  - JOUR
T1  - Cost-Benefit Analysis for a Quinquennial Census: The 2016 Population Census of South Africa
JF  - Journal of Official Statistics
Y1  - 2017
A1  - Spencer, Bruce D.
A1  - May, Julian
A1  - Kenyon, Steven
A1  - Seeskin, Zachary
KW  - demographic statistics
KW  - fiscal allocations
KW  - loss function
KW  - population estimates
KW  - post-censal estimates
AB  - The question of whether to carry out a quinquennial Census is faced by national statistical offices in increasingly many countries, including Canada, Nigeria, Ireland, Australia, and South Africa. We describe uses and limitations of cost-benefit analysis in this decision problem in the case of the 2016 Census of South Africa. The government of South Africa needed to decide whether to conduct a 2016 Census or to rely on increasingly inaccurate postcensal estimates accounting for births, deaths, and migration since the previous (2011) Census. The cost-benefit analysis compared predicted costs of the 2016 Census to the benefits of improved allocation of intergovernmental revenue, which was considered by the government to be a critical use of the 2016 Census, although not the only important benefit. Without the 2016 Census, allocations would be based on population estimates. Accuracy of the postcensal estimates was estimated from the performance of past estimates, and the hypothetical expected reduction in errors in allocation due to the 2016 Census was estimated. A loss function was introduced to quantify the improvement in allocation. With this evidence, the government was able to decide not to conduct the 2016 Census, but instead to improve data and capacity for producing post-censal estimates.
VL  - 33
SN  - 2001-7367
UR  - https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jos.2017.33.issue-1/jos-2017-0013/jos-2017-0013.xml
IS  - 1
ER  - 

TY  - RPRT
T1  - NCRN Meeting Spring 2016: A 2016 View of 2020 Census Quality, Costs, Benefits
Y1  - 2016
A1  - Spencer, Bruce D.
AB  - NCRN Meeting Spring 2016: A 2016 View of 2020 Census Quality, Costs, Benefits Spencer, Bruce D. Census costs affect data quality and data quality affects census benefits. Although measuring census data quality is difficult enough ex post, census planning requires it to be done well in advance. The topic of this talk is the prediction of the cost-quality curve, its uncertainty, and its relation to benefits from census data. Presented at the NCRN Meeting Spring 2016 in Washington DC on May 9-10, 2016; see http://www.ncrn.info/event/ncrn-spring-2016-meeting
PB  - Northwestern University
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/1813/43897
ER  - 

TY  - RPRT
T1  - Cost-Benefit Analysis for a Quinquennial Census: The 2016 Population Census of South Africa.
Y1  - 2015
A1  - Spencer, Bruce D.
A1  - May, Julian
A1  - Kenyon, Steven
A1  - Seeskin, Zachary H.
KW  - demographic statistics
KW  - fiscal allocations
KW  - loss function
KW  - population estimates
KW  - post-censal estimates
AB  - <p>The question of whether to carry out a quinquennial census is being faced by national statistical offices in increasingly many countries, including Canada, Nigeria, Ireland, Australia, and South Africa. The authors describe uses, and limitations, of cost-benefit analysis for this decision problem in the case of the 2016 census of South Africa. The government of South Africa needed to decide whether to conduct a 2016 census or to rely on increasingly inaccurate post-censal estimates accounting for births, deaths, and migration since the previous (2011) census. The cost-benefit analysis compared predicted costs of the 2016 census to the benefits from improved allocation of intergovernmental revenue, which was considered by the government to be a critical use of the 2016 census, although not the only important benefit. Without the 2016 census, allocations would be based on population estimates. Accuracy of the post-censal estimates was estimated from the performance of past estimates, and the hypothetical expected reduction in errors in allocation due to the 2016 census was estimated. A loss function was introduced to quantify the improvement in allocation. With this evidence, the government was able to decide not to conduct the 2016 census, but instead to improve data and capacity for producing post-censal estimates.</p>
JF  - IPR Working Paper Series
PB  - Northwestern University, Institute for Policy Research
UR  - http://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/publications/papers/2015/ipr-wp-15-06.html
ER  - 

TY  - RPRT
T1  - Effects of Census Accuracy on Apportionment of Congress and Allocations of Federal Funds.
Y1  - 2015
A1  - Seeskin, Zachary H.
A1  - Spencer, Bruce D.
AB  - <p>How much accuracy is needed in the 2020 census depends on the cost of attaining accuracy and on the consequences of imperfect accuracy. The cost target for the 2020 census of the United States has been specified, and the Census Bureau is developing projections of the accuracy attainable for that cost. It is desirable to have information about the consequences of the accuracy that might be attainable for that cost or for alternative cost levels. To assess the consequences of imperfect census accuracy, Seeskin and Spencer consider alternative profiles of accuracy for states and assess their implications for apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives and for allocation of federal funds. An error in allocation is defined as the difference between the allocation computed under imperfect data and the allocation computed with perfect data. Estimates of expected sums of absolute values of errors are presented for House apportionment and for federal funds allocations.</p>
JF  - IPR Working Paper Series
PB  - Northwestern University, Institute for Policy Research
UR  - http://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/publications/papers/2015/ipr-wp-15-05.html
ER  -